The Kansas City Chiefs are staring down a postseason void they haven’t faced in over a decade. After a 31-28 heartbreaker to the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving night — November 27, 2025, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas — their playoff probability plunged below 50 percent for the first time this season. The loss wasn’t just another setback. It was a seismic shift. At 6-6, the Chiefs now sit in the No. 10 spot in the AFC, three spots out of the playoffs, with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans, and Buffalo Bills blocking their path. And with just five games left, every snap feels like a coin flip.
What Went Wrong in Arlington?
It wasn’t a collapse. It was a slow unraveling. The Chiefs led 28-24 with under three minutes left. Then Dak Prescott, calm as a Sunday morning, marched Dallas 72 yards in 11 plays, capped by a 12-yard touchdown pass to CeeDee Lamb with 47 seconds on the clock. The Chiefs’ final drive ended with a Patrick Mahomes interception in the end zone — his first red-zone pick in over 18 months. Defensive lapses on third down, missed tackles on outside runs, and a special teams blunder that gave Dallas excellent field position all added up. The Cowboys didn’t outplay them. They outlasted them. And in a tight race, that’s all it takes.The Playoff Math Is Brutal
According to the New York Times NFL playoff simulator and ESPN’s Football Power Index — both cited by Jackson Durham of the Chiefs Report by Chat Sports — Kansas City’s playoff odds were hovering at 62 percent before kickoff. After the loss? 28 percent. That’s less than a coin flip. And it’s not just about wins. It’s about who else loses. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans both sit at 6-5. If they both lose this Sunday — to the Bills and Colts, respectively — they’d tie the Chiefs at 6-6. But tiebreakers favor Buffalo and Houston. So even a 7-6 record might not be enough unless the Chiefs win out.Here’s the cold truth: if Kansas City wins all five remaining games — including home matchups against the Houston Texans (Dec. 7), Los Angeles Chargers (Dec. 14), and Denver Broncos (Christmas Day) — their playoff probability jumps to 96 percent by Week 16. But one loss? That drops it to 68 percent. Two losses? You’re looking at a 12 percent chance. The margin for error isn’t thin. It’s nonexistent.
The Remaining Schedule: A Gauntlet of What-Ifs
The Chiefs’ final five games read like a playoff pressure test:- Week 14: vs. Houston Texans (Dec. 7, Arrowhead Stadium) — A must-win. Houston’s offense is erratic, but they’ve won three of their last four. A loss here kills momentum.
- Week 15: vs. Los Angeles Chargers (Dec. 14, Arrowhead Stadium) — The Chargers are 7-4 and hungry. Justin Herbert has a 3-0 record against Kansas City since 2022. This isn’t just a game — it’s a statement.
- Week 16: at Tennessee Titans (Dec. 21, Nissan Stadium) — A road game in December. The Titans’ defense is stingy. The Chiefs haven’t won there since 2019.
- Week 17: vs. Denver Broncos (Dec. 25, Arrowhead Stadium) — Christmas Day. A chance to send the fans home happy. But Denver’s defense has improved under Sean Payton.
- Week 18: at Las Vegas Raiders (Jan. 4, Allegiant Stadium) — The final game of the season. A meaningless game for some. For the Chiefs? It could be the difference between a playoff berth and a draft lottery.
Why This Feels Different
This isn’t the 2022 Chiefs, when they coasted to 14 wins despite injuries. This isn’t even the 2024 team, which rode Mahomes’ brilliance to a 12-5 record. In 2025, the offensive line is inconsistent. The secondary has given up 28+ points in four of the last six games. The defense is no longer elite — it’s just adequate. And the coaching staff? They’ve looked reactive, not proactive. The bye week after Week 10 didn’t fix anything. It just delayed the reckoning.And yet — there’s still hope. Mahomes is still Mahomes. Travis Kelce is still a mismatch nightmare. The Chiefs have won 10+ games in 11 straight seasons. They’ve overcome worse. But this time, they can’t rely on momentum. They need perfect execution. And luck. And a little help from their rivals.
What’s Next? The AFC Wild Card Shuffle
This Sunday, November 30, 2025, could change everything. If the Buffalo Bills beat the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Indianapolis Colts upset the Houston Texans, the AFC playoff picture flips. Suddenly, the Chiefs aren’t fighting for the last spot — they’re tied for it. But if both underdogs win? Kansas City’s season could slip into irrelevance by Monday.There’s no sugarcoating it: the Chiefs are no longer the favorites. They’re the underdogs. And in the NFL, underdogs don’t get second chances.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can the Chiefs still make the playoffs with two losses?
Technically, yes — but it’s unlikely. If the Chiefs finish 8-9, they’d need at least two AFC teams ahead of them to lose in Week 18, and favorable tiebreakers. Their current strength of victory is 12th in the AFC, so they’d need to leapfrog teams with better records or head-to-head wins. Historically, only one 8-9 team made the playoffs since 2010 — the 2014 Steelers. The odds are under 15 percent.
How does Dak Prescott’s performance impact the Chiefs’ playoff chances?
Prescott’s 31-point outburst didn’t just cost the Chiefs a game — it exposed their defensive vulnerabilities. Teams like the Chargers and Bills will target that same weakness. If Kansas City can’t improve their pass rush and secondary coverage by Week 15, they’ll struggle against elite QBs. Prescott’s efficiency (28/35, 297 yards, 2 TDs) sets a new standard for what the Chiefs’ defense must now counter.
Why is the Week 14 game against the Texans so critical?
Winning at home against Houston would put the Chiefs at 7-6 and force them into a tiebreaker conversation with the Steelers and Texans. It would also give them momentum heading into the Chargers game. A loss drops them to 6-7 and makes them reliant on other teams’ losses — a dangerous position. The Texans’ offense is unpredictable, but their defense ranks 28th in the NFL. This is the Chiefs’ best shot to control their own destiny.
What’s the worst-case scenario for the Chiefs?
The worst-case scenario is a 7-10 finish, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2013. That would mean losing to the Texans, Chargers, and Titans, while the Bills, Steelers, and Texans all finish 8-9 or better. It would trigger a major offseason overhaul — potentially including offensive coordinator changes and defensive scheme shifts — and end the Chiefs’ 11-year streak of playoff appearances.
Has any team with a 6-6 record after 12 games made the playoffs in recent years?
Yes — but rarely. The 2021 Kansas City Chiefs started 6-6 and finished 12-5, making the playoffs as a wild card. The 2020 Tennessee Titans did the same. Both teams won their final five games. The difference? They had easier schedules and stronger defenses. The 2025 Chiefs don’t. Their remaining opponents have a combined 38-26 record. It’s a tougher climb.
What does this loss mean for Patrick Mahomes’ legacy?
It doesn’t hurt it — not yet. Mahomes has carried teams through worse. But if the Chiefs miss the playoffs, it would be the first time since 2013 that a Mahomes-led team didn’t reach the postseason. That’s a stain on an otherwise flawless resume. The narrative shifts from “greatest of all time” to “great, but not clutch when it mattered most.” The next two months will define whether he’s a transcendent talent — or just a brilliant player in a great system.